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UK General Election 2024
Jul. 5th, 2024 05:58 pmThis is not a victory. It is a step in the right direction, and many more such steps will need to be taken.
The huge majority that Starmer's Labour has just won will encourage one of two things: They will either think, "our majority is unassailable, let's do some stuff that would be voted down in an instant if we tried it with a small majority." Or they will think, "same ol' same ol' got us this huge majority, there's no need to do any different, let's continue with austerity and Brexit." Either way, Starmer is likely to be pig-headed about changing his mind on Brexit.
However, there are a few things that mere numbers of seats do not reveal. The first is that many individual MPs support rejoining the EU; if Starmer continues to ignore or deny the issue, he may start facing insurmountable backbench rebellions. The second is that there has been more than one poll that showed that more people (nearly twice as many) voted Labour simply because they were not the Tories than voted Labour because of any of their policies; if Starmer does not take that into account, his majority is likely to be radically reduced at the next GE.
I suspect that one of the reasons the Tories held on as long as possible before calling this GE was that they knew they would be wiped out, and the resulting huge Labour majority would lull them into a sense of false security in their position, thus making it easier for the Tories to get back into power in five years time. Both the aforementioned factors will play into this strategy.
Probably the best strategy for those who want the UK to rejoin the EU is not to campaign directly for it - not yet, anyway. Starmer made refusing to consider Rejoining a key part of his campaign, and this soon after the election, with such a huge majority, he's going to see it as his duty to keep that up, and campaigning in favour of it is likely to make him dig in harder. Wait until the majority of newspapers are asking why Britain is not petitioning the EU to Rejoin, before directly campaigning for it ourselves.
What must be done, is to hammer the point that most people voted Labour to get rid of the Tories, rather than in support of their stated policies. That will keep the actual precariousness of Labour's position in the spotlight, and open the leadership up to changing things, instead of continuing the Tory austerity/Brexit dogma - which is what their policies are, though watered down a little.
Also, put pressure on MPs to abandon FPTP and introduce PR. The large number of new LibDem MPs will certainly be in favour of this - it's been part of their platform for several years - but pressuring Labour MPs to do so will be essential. PR may not return the huge majorities for one party or another that FPTP does, but it will keep the Tories out of power, and that has to be the key selling point to make to Labour, in view of the large number or people who voted for them solely to kick the Tories out. But the key point about introducing PR for future GEs is that it is far more likely to return governments that actually listen to what the people of the country want, instead of what some special-interest focus group or biased think tank whose chair is buddies with someone in the Cabinet wants. And, as we all know, what the people of the UK want is to Rejoin the EU.
Moves to begin rejoining the EU are not likely to happen in this parliament. But if Starmer and the rest of the Labour leadership are kept reminded that they are actually in a weak parliamentary position, and especially if PR replaces FPTP, then those moves are likely to begin in the next parliament.
The huge majority that Starmer's Labour has just won will encourage one of two things: They will either think, "our majority is unassailable, let's do some stuff that would be voted down in an instant if we tried it with a small majority." Or they will think, "same ol' same ol' got us this huge majority, there's no need to do any different, let's continue with austerity and Brexit." Either way, Starmer is likely to be pig-headed about changing his mind on Brexit.
However, there are a few things that mere numbers of seats do not reveal. The first is that many individual MPs support rejoining the EU; if Starmer continues to ignore or deny the issue, he may start facing insurmountable backbench rebellions. The second is that there has been more than one poll that showed that more people (nearly twice as many) voted Labour simply because they were not the Tories than voted Labour because of any of their policies; if Starmer does not take that into account, his majority is likely to be radically reduced at the next GE.
I suspect that one of the reasons the Tories held on as long as possible before calling this GE was that they knew they would be wiped out, and the resulting huge Labour majority would lull them into a sense of false security in their position, thus making it easier for the Tories to get back into power in five years time. Both the aforementioned factors will play into this strategy.
Probably the best strategy for those who want the UK to rejoin the EU is not to campaign directly for it - not yet, anyway. Starmer made refusing to consider Rejoining a key part of his campaign, and this soon after the election, with such a huge majority, he's going to see it as his duty to keep that up, and campaigning in favour of it is likely to make him dig in harder. Wait until the majority of newspapers are asking why Britain is not petitioning the EU to Rejoin, before directly campaigning for it ourselves.
What must be done, is to hammer the point that most people voted Labour to get rid of the Tories, rather than in support of their stated policies. That will keep the actual precariousness of Labour's position in the spotlight, and open the leadership up to changing things, instead of continuing the Tory austerity/Brexit dogma - which is what their policies are, though watered down a little.
Also, put pressure on MPs to abandon FPTP and introduce PR. The large number of new LibDem MPs will certainly be in favour of this - it's been part of their platform for several years - but pressuring Labour MPs to do so will be essential. PR may not return the huge majorities for one party or another that FPTP does, but it will keep the Tories out of power, and that has to be the key selling point to make to Labour, in view of the large number or people who voted for them solely to kick the Tories out. But the key point about introducing PR for future GEs is that it is far more likely to return governments that actually listen to what the people of the country want, instead of what some special-interest focus group or biased think tank whose chair is buddies with someone in the Cabinet wants. And, as we all know, what the people of the UK want is to Rejoin the EU.
Moves to begin rejoining the EU are not likely to happen in this parliament. But if Starmer and the rest of the Labour leadership are kept reminded that they are actually in a weak parliamentary position, and especially if PR replaces FPTP, then those moves are likely to begin in the next parliament.
